The 2026 AFL season is shaping up to be a thrilling contest, with early contenders emerging and a tight race for the finals. Sydney and Fremantle are leading the charge, but Hawthorn's dual-style approach makes them a strong contender for the flag. The season is characterized by a growing divergence between surge and control sides, with teams adopting different philosophies to gain an edge.
Possession and Position
The key to success in the modern game is controlling possession and maintaining position. Hawthorn is the standout performer in this area, consistently achieving both objectives. This has established them as early favorites for the 2026 flag. Sydney and Gold Coast dominate the front half but struggle with possession, while Brisbane thrives by controlling the tempo.
The shift towards handballs and quick movement is evident, with handball metres gained increasing from 255m per game last year to 324m this year. This is largely driven by Sydney's aggressive style, the premiership-winning coaching offshoots (Suns, Giants, and Pies), and Steven King's impact at Melbourne. Teams are also breaking harder, with marks per game on the rise, indicating a more aggressive approach.
Launch Zones and Scoring
The location and manner of scoring vary across teams. Intercepts and transition play are the main sources of scores, with about 60% of all scores coming from these plays. Teams like the Suns and Lions excel at turning front-half dominance into points, while Collingwood's chaotic style has led to over-performance in winning the ball close to their goal. GWS, Fremantle, and Sydney have also reaped rewards from defense-to-attack transitions.
Defending the Lead
Defence is a critical aspect of the game, with teams prioritizing different strategies. Zone and press defenses are common, but some teams opt for one-out across the ground. Port Adelaide, under new coach Josh Carr, has adopted a hard-to-move-the-ball defense, conceding inside 50 entries less than 16% of the time. This defensive identity has made them a formidable force.
Transition Scoring and Defensive Metrics
Transition scoring is a significant concern for many teams, with top teams becoming more deadly when given time and space. Defensive metrics vary for each team, with clubs developing their own KPIs. Sydney and Fremantle, for instance, spoil relatively often, creating more ground balls and scoring opportunities. This defensive approach has contributed to their success on the ladder.
Tight Race for Finals
The 2026 season is shaping up to be a tight race for the finals, with 13 teams within a win of a current finals spot. This congestion is similar to the previous season, indicating that the expanded finals format has not significantly altered the dynamics of the competition. The competition appears more even, with a clear group at the bottom and 14 sides with a shot at finals.
In conclusion, the 2026 AFL season is an exciting prospect, with a mix of philosophies and strategies emerging. Sydney and Fremantle are leading the charge, but Hawthorn's dual-style approach makes them a strong contender. The race for the finals is tight, and the competition is shaping up to be a thrilling contest as the season progresses.
